Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 1.954542 2.065281 2.181355 2.312508 2.457088 2.612187 2.791931
2025-07-20 1.815478 1.972194 2.144259 2.348751 2.587240 2.859247 3.196889
2025-07-27 1.729670 1.915403 2.126106 2.385903 2.702061 3.080457 3.577520
2025-08-03 1.639052 1.840642 2.074915 2.371922 2.745507 3.210250 3.850229
2025-08-10 1.564567 1.777226 2.029330 2.356511 2.779913 3.324907 4.108410
2025-08-17 1.497106 1.716779 1.981556 2.332064 2.796923 3.413587 4.335552
2025-08-24 1.437927 1.662434 1.936963 2.306773 2.808115 3.491729 4.552063
2025-08-31 1.397265 1.628475 1.915265 2.308419 2.853476 3.618289 4.852142
2025-09-07 1.365701 1.603985 1.903638 2.321499 2.913796 3.769286 5.207011
2025-09-14 1.318901 1.557667 1.860940 2.289187 2.906312 3.817435 5.398144
2025-09-21 1.275109 1.513380 1.818721 2.254762 2.892590 3.853461 5.571051
2025-09-28 1.230136 1.465862 1.770137 2.208690 2.858209 3.853430 5.678613
2025-10-05 1.213862 1.456025 1.772366 2.235384 2.935639 4.040220 6.159188
2025-10-12 1.201212 1.450371 1.779787 2.269549 3.026424 4.257417 6.737462
2025-10-19 1.189721 1.445624 1.787911 2.304659 3.120542 4.489318 7.392533
2025-10-26 1.163108 1.419290 1.764638 2.291448 3.135555 4.582754 7.768378
2025-11-02 1.137674 1.393709 1.741370 2.276882 3.146946 4.669993 8.147166
2025-11-09 1.111017 1.365610 1.713464 2.253769 3.142286 4.726364 8.463839
2025-11-16 1.085532 1.338407 1.685898 2.229849 3.134548 4.775745 8.773655
2025-11-23 1.068996 1.323196 1.675071 2.231406 3.170365 4.913007 9.344698
2025-11-30 1.056451 1.313172 1.671342 2.243778 3.225544 5.094474 10.088272
2025-12-07 1.032263 1.286027 1.641586 2.213211 3.202289 5.112012 10.361614
2025-12-14 1.008550 1.259021 1.611295 2.180628 3.173580 5.115528 10.595200